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April 12, 2006

Slack capacity? It won't last long
Posted by Lou Smyrlis at 09:51 PM

Have you been finding it harder of late to find freight, particularly for US bound hauls? Perhaps you're seeing competitors easing off on rate increases, maybe even backing off on some accessorial charges?

Many motor carriers are reporting a lacklustre first quarter with shipment volumes below expectations. South of the border, where the economy is stronger, the American Trucking Associations Tonnage Index decreased 2.5% in February, marking the first monthly decline since last August and the largest monthly decline in a year.

It's not a problem isolated to trucking. CN Rail and CP Rail will be releasing their first quarter results later this month and although analysts are anticipating a strong financial showing, that could have more to do with aggressive pricing tactics than significant volume gains. In fact, volume growth at the big six Class One railroads has slowed considerably since 2004, as respected transportation industry analyst David Newman pointed out in National Bank Financial's Daily Bulletin recently.

Combined, the weakness in rail and truck movements is indicative of volume weakness across the North American freight transportation industry.

Our own Transportation Media Research Buying Trends Survey, conducted in partnership with CITA and CITT late last year and which included freight volume projections from more than 700 shippers across Canada, found shippers in the pulp and paper industry and manufacturers, particularly in central Canada, somewhat pessimistic about their freight volumes in 2006. South of the border inventory corrections at several big-name retailers such as Wal-Mart and Procter & Gamble have been occurring throughout the first quarter. Thom Albrecht, managing director of investment banking firm Stephens Inc., and considered to be one of transportation's most accurate analysts, has even gone as far as suggesting the tight truckload capacity situation could reverse itself in 2006 with capacity additions slightly outstripping demand (by 1% to 2%) for the first time in several years.

So with first quarter shipment volumes falling short of expectations and capacity not as tight as it used to be, motor carriers (perhaps eventually even rail carriers?) are likely being less aggressive with their pricing. And no doubt smart shippers taking note that motor carriers are not exactly bursting at the seams at the moment are moving up their bid packages for the peak season to take advantage of the current weakness.

That's the current reality but I think it will be a short term one - for several reasons.

First, concern that manufacturing shipment volumes in Canada are falling far behind those in the US is exaggerated. The divergence began back in September 2004. According to Jennie Wang's report in the Canadian Economic Observer, from that time till August 2005, the gap between the growth in US and Canadian shipments was 5.2 percentage points with current dollar shipments up 5.5% in the US but only 0.3% in Canada. But, as Wang points out, much of the gap between the growth of shipments in Canada and the United States is due to differences in the prices of manufactured goods as they leave the factory gate. Canadian manufacturers export close to half of all their shipments and often get paid in US greenbacks. Of course, as the exchange rate rose, they received fewer Canadian dollars for their US dollars and so the value of their shipments took a distinct hit. In constant dollars, when the effect of prices is eliminated, the gap between the volume of US and Canadian shipments is practically nil (only 0.3 percentage points).

Second, a good chunk of the capacity growth for motor carriers on both sides of the border is due to concerns about the 2007 engines and their $7,000-$10,000 additional price tags. Many fleets - more than 40% of Canadian for-hire carriers according to our research - are looking to speed up their truck replacement cycle this year so they won't have to buy trucks with the new engines next year. But they are basically cramming two years of growth into one, artificially and temporarily, boosting capacity this year. Truck manufacturers I spoke to last month were expecting a 30% to 35% drop off in truck sales next year. There's also anecdotal evidence that fleets hung on to some of their older vehicles anticipating the strong demand for their services from 2005 would continue into 2006, another capacity boost that will likely disappear by 2007. These reasons have led Albrecht to predict the current slack will be followed by a re-tightening of capacity for 2007.

In other words, you'll have to adjust to the current respite in capacity shortages and upward pressure on rates, but it won't last long.

April 11, 2006

The truth about cats and dogs
Posted by Julia Kuzeljevich at 04:41 PM

My brother-in-law announced at dinner the other day that he’d take a 5 % pay cut if he could bring his dog to work.

Apparently, so would a third of people who got surveyed recently in a poll for the online dog forum Dogster and the job search engine Simply Hired, (where dog lovers can actually do a search for dog-friendly companies!)

The survey also found that 70 % of the 150 people questioned also considered a dog-friendly office ‘an important job benefit.’

Now my brother-in-law, who works for the Ministry of Finance (ONT), could probably swing bringing his dog to the office (if he could get her past the office allergy police and those people who are sensitive to smells).

It’s not like the dog would ever be overworked. She’d have lunch paid for every day. And, she might come up with a better budget every spring!

I think that in terms of working with your pet, though, this could be an area where some truckers might have the advantage over other professions. Finally!

I remember when I first started working for Truck News, my esteemed former editor, John G. Smith, went with me on a photo shoot. We were doing a story on truckers and their pets, and it was the first time I had ever had absolutely no problem getting people to respond to requests for interviews.

For weeks, we got letters from truckers and pictures of their dogs, cats, and occasionally, some other type of pet.

On the photo shoot, we saw some of the best animal accommodations ever in the truck cabs.

I always wondered, though, how does it work for, you know, pit stops, when a pet is along for the ride?

Many drivers told me that the pets got used to the schedule of when they would stop for breaks, and their pets kept them well-exercised when away from the wheel, which definitely kept them healthier. Of all the truckers we interviewed, we found mostly dog and cat lovers. Not too many reptiles and rodents in the cab, that we saw anyway. It always seems to come down to whether you’re a cat or a dog person, I find.

I’d be interested to know what the situation is nowadays (some six years later) with regard to how many truckers are travelling with pets (especially in a climate of ultra-tight security. I mean, can the pet get a FAST card? Does FDA have to come on board?)

I admit, I like all animals but there’s a lot about dog behaviour I don’t understand.

I appreciate that in terms of evolution, dogs allowed man to get further ahead with regard to hunting, for example.

And all working dogs, like police sniffers, seeing eye dogs and sheep dogs, deserve a lot of praise of course.

But the everyday domesticated pooch has some weird habits in the eyes of “cat people” like me.

My brother-in-law and sister-in-law have a half-pug, half-Jack Russell called Milla (after Milla Jovovich, the model. Go figure). We see it once a week when we all get together for dinner.

Millamilla.jpg

I pretend to be glad to see Milla although she always jumps on me and licks my face while my sister- in-law uselessly yells “Milla! No licking!” in the background.

I put up with this treatment because as it turns out, my three and a half-year-old is a dog lover.

She likes to boss Milla around and toss the dog’s slimy rubber toy bone around, back and forth, ALL NIGHT LONG (until I hide it in the closet).

I constantly hear her saying “Paw, paw, paw” for the dog to shake her hand. And she was very disappointed at Christmas when we got a new kitten instead of a puppy.

For several days each morning she proposed we send the cat back to Santa in exchange for a dog. She is still negotiating to this day.

But there’s no way that I am walking around the neighbourhood with a plastic sandwich bag, ready to scoop up you-know-what. And given the “debris” that I frequently find littering the local playground, many dog owners are not prepared to do so either.

Now apparently, dogs can’t eat chocolate, even the smallest chocolate chip, or they will d-i-e, but how is it that they can consume shoe leather, aluminum blinds, molding, the silica filling of a stuffed animal, dryer lint and the plastic casing of an I-pod and remain perfectly HEALTHY?

My sister-in-law, refusing to crate the dog while she was at work as the vet had advised, would come home daily to something else destroyed. The only time she punished the dog was for the I-pod though!

(I would have punished it after the pair of shoes, but anyway…)

At least cats go for the good stuff.

I had a bunch of grocery bags in the kitchen and had to leave them unpacked for a few minutes while I ran into the other room.

I came back to see that our male kitten, Giacomo, had clawed through butcher paper and was gnawing his way through several inches of steak. (My husband got what remained of it for dinner).

The cat had also, (though I didn’t find out until later), sunk his claws into a couple of bags of milk, not enough to gash them, just enough so that they leaked out slowwwwwly into all the fridge compartments by the next day.

Giacomogiacomo.bmp

I blame some of this not completely on his being a cat, but on his still not being “fixed.”

My husband says daily “No one is taking away his balls!” but let’s just see how we get through the spring.

There’s already been a big vet bill for a cat fight that Giacomo got into when he slipped outside unattended.

Simba, an older cat that roams the “territory” near our yard, fanged him right through his front paw.

My husband grumbled that he had never spent so much in his life on all his previous cats combined, but the very next day, he picked up the purring, bandaged cat and said affectionately (for him), “How are ya, gimp? It’s time to get your revenge.”
Stay tuned!


April 03, 2006

Truckers: The best kind of people
Posted by Adam Ledlow at 11:35 PM

What is it that gives truck drivers their trademark demeanor? I’m not talking that lane-hopping, bumper-riding, slow-as-molasses highway jockey image so often projected by the public. I’m talking the courteous truck driver, who not only shares the road but is often first to act when another motorist is in trouble.

I had the privilege of attending Goodyear’s Highway Hero ceremony at the Mid-America Trucking Show on Mar. 23, when the industry’s most selfless, caring individuals are honoured for acts of heroism over the past year. Though only one could emerge the victor, my hat goes off to each one of the four finalists: Douglas Crawford, Danny Wallen, Robert A. Starr and Michael Knott. Through their noble actions, drivers like these shine as a beacon not just for other truckers, but for all of us.

In my experience, such drivers are by no means an anomaly. Almost every time I speak with drivers at a truck stop, a few always seem to have some story of intrepid heroism. The sheer normalcy with which they spin their tales tells me that most consider such actions a standard, however infrequent, part of their job.

But it’s not just the literal life saving that gets me. It’s the small acts of courtesy which really put truck drivers in a category a cut above.

Early in November, I was travelling with my girlfriend, Jennifer, to interview Lee Howard of Inferno Kustom Werks, when Jennifer fell ill on the car ride up. I had okayed having her with me for the interview, but hadn’t intended arriving on Lee’s doorstep with a sicky in tow.

When we finally completed the nauseous three-hour trip to Coe Hill, Ont., Jennifer announced that she would just stay in the car while I completed the interview.

Lee’s wife Linda wouldn’t hear of it.

Not only was Jennifer brought inside, she was fed, given medication and wrapped in a blanket on Linda’s couch where she slept the afternoon away. I myself was treated to lunch and hot chocolate to compliment the unrivalled hospitality from my hosts. I was blown away. We left with a “to-go” care package not only feeling revitalized by the nourishment, but by the fact that good people still exist in this world.

Back in February, while interviewing for a recent Truck Stop Question, I ended up having lunch with Phil and Phyllis Jordan, a lovely couple running teams from Moose Jaw, Sask. Though we’d only just met outside the Husky Truck Stop that day, the Jordan’s were so warm and receptive, we ended our afternoon exchanging numbers and speaking like old friends. They even offered up their home should I find ever myself in Moose Jaw.

And just last week, while conducting a phone interview with Danny’s Custom Truck Fenders’ founder, Danny Campbell, I received a no-strings-attached offer to come and stay at their home in P.E.I. anytime I felt like visiting the East Coast. This from a man I’d know for all of 16 minutes!

These offers join numerous others from drivers who have offered me a spare room. Countless others have graciously offered their passenger seat to me should I ever want to ride along. Even when I’m driving on the highway, truck drivers always seem to be the first ones to pull over if another motorist ever needs a helping hand.

So what is it that gives truck drivers this generous spirit? Perhaps long, lonely hours on the highway have given them a greater appreciation for human interaction. Maybe meeting people from all walks off life while travelling across the country has made them realize how similar we are, rather than how different.

Regardless, I am constantly amazed at the number of drivers who show such graciousness, generosity and valour on a daily basis. I can only hope that one day the general public will return the favour.